Soldiers and volunteers from Aleppo University hand out food to IDPs having come in from Eastern Aleppo. December 14, 2016 © Jan Oberg 2016
TFF PressInfo # 405
Lund, Sweden – February 24, 2017
Failed conflict analysis
To analyse a conflict is as necessary as the diagnosis for the doctor: You either get to a solution/treatment or you don’t.
If the diagnosis is deficient, you don’t. You instead risk killing the patient.
And it’s deficient of you stare only at “evil” cells and blame the patient for a life style that has increased the risk that she would attract cancer.
That doesn’t bring healing.
A typical, deficient or irrelevant approach to international conflict is to a) focus on the violence but not the underlying conflicts its a symptom of; b) to apportion guilt and c) believe that we will solve the conflict if ‘good’ violence is used to defeat ‘evil’ violence.
After failed conflict analyses in Afghanistan, Serbia-Kosovo, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Iraq, Ukraine and Libya, Western politicians and subservient mainstream media have done it once again in Syria:
Contributed heavily to tremendous human suffering, made everything much worse than it was before and failed to achieve anything good.
Moral superiority lost
In terms of ethics, there exists no political goal whatsoever that can justify the killing of 300.000-400.000 people and the destruction of houses, livelihood, economy and milieus that has forced 7 million to flee inside the country and 5 million to leave the country – i.e. more than 50% of the population.
Yes, the “regime” and the “dictator” and Russia have participated in this destruction – very much so – but it’s anyhow time to ask:
How does the West/NATO and its allies such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the Gulf States and Israel morally justify their contribution this the largest humanitarian crisis on earth since 1945 with 13 millon people in desparate need of humanitarian assistance.
It’s not only untrue, it is morally unacceptable to keep on blaming everything – everything – on one person and one leadership with no self-reflection.
The self-assumed Western moral superiority fell with the liberation of Aleppo.
Aleppo’s liberation: A golden opportunity for a new policy
The liberation of Aleppo is a golden opportunity to do just that.
But instead that turning point has been deliberately forgotten and the victims of the occupation of Eastern Aleppo have been disappeared by media and politics.
The war and destruction will continue because such a biased approach leads only in direction: More war.
Very soon, presumably, we shall witness US boots on the grounds. Massively.
There is woefully little constructive-creative peace thinking the whole way around the political and geographical spectrum.
And without a better vision, continued killing will look to many as the optimal way ahead.
However, for the millions of victims in Syria it just isn’t.
Aleppo should become a turning point toward peace instead of more war.
From the Jibrin Reception Center in Aleppo, December 14, 2016. Note the footwear © Jan Oberg 2016
One must fear that the negotiations just started in Geneva will not yield any better results than before – because they don’t build on a comprehensive understanding of this – hugely complex – conflict.
Even the way the tables are arranged is counterproductive…
TFF PressInfo # 405 walks you through a few principles of professional conflict analysis and provokes you to reflect a bit on:
a) What is it “we” have done so wrong and:
b) How can we help Syria’s people to stop an even deeper descent into hell.
TFF PressInfo # 405
Keep focus on Aleppo and global dimensions of Syria
TFF PressInfo # 404:
Unique Aleppo photos seen by 100.000+ but not in the mainstream media
See also the PressInfo 398 and 397 below.
TFF PressInfo 398: Syria and Aleppo: Old news media falling
TFF PressInfo 397: Syria’s destruction – When everybody thinks power and no one thinks peace.